The cost-conscious Walmart (WMT) shopper doesn't appear to be breaking under the weight of $4 gas amid the US war on Iran.

How much longer that resilience can continue is anyone's guess.

"Management reiterated that there are clear psychological thresholds [for gas] ($3–4 manageable, $4–5 economic pressure, $5 shock)," Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe wrote in a note on Thursday after meeting with Walmart execs. "Importantly, they have not seen behavior changes in performance data, only in sentiment surveys. Current trends show no meaningful shift in baskets, trips, or mix."

Walmart's cost of goods sold line appears to be holding up as well, based on Tarlowe's analysis.

Tarlowe noted that management acknowledged some exposure to high diesel prices in their private fleet, but that was baked into the company's guidance. Walmart's food inflation assumptions were also unchanged, he said, and the retailer said it can absorb around 50–100 basis points of price escalation through scale, sourcing, and pricing discipline.

In each area, duration is "the key risk variable," Tarlowe said.

Since the start of the war in Iran in late February, US gasoline prices have surged sharply, tracking the spike in global oil markets and reflecting one of the fastest increases in years.

National average gas prices have climbed from roughly the low-$3 range to above $4 per gallon in a matter of weeks, with some regions, such as California, seeing $6 a gallon or higher.

Read more: What an extended war with Iran could mean for gas prices

The jump has been driven primarily by supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows, along with higher shipping and insurance costs and a broader geopolitical risk premium.

As a result, US drivers are facing a sudden and highly visible increase in fuel costs, with analysts warning that prices could remain elevated even if tensions ease due to lingering supply constraints.

The economic uncertainty has begun to show up in economic data releases.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 58.4 in late March — a level not seen since the height of the 2008 financial crisis. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2026 have already been trimmed by 40 basis points, a sharper downward revision than that seen in the Chinese economy.

The labor market is beginning to cool, with initial jobless claims ticking up to 235,000 last week as high-input costs force energy-sensitive industries to pause hiring.

Athleticwear giant Nike (NKE) issued a stock price-crushing earnings warning for the current quarter late Tuesday.

Given its defensive properties (consumers trade down to Walmart when prices are high, for one), Walmart shares have outperformed the S&P 500 in the past month — a 2% drop compared to the 4.5% decline for the benchmark index.

A more discretionary department store, Macy's (M), has seen its stock tank 9% in the last month.

Jefferies' Tarlowe reiterated a Buy rating on Walmart's stock.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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