Citrini Research β€” the financial research publication that gained attention in February for its doomsday AI report β€” sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz to report on-the-ground conditions. Its report suggests the strait may not be as closed off as markets are pricing.

According to a post on the Citrini Research Substack page and videos posted to X, the analyst, dubbed "Analyst #3," reached the strait in March and found that the satellite- and ship-tracking data the market has been relying on has been undercounting the "dark fleet" of vessels operating in the region.

The report was quoted as saying that vessels spoofed their location data and changed their ownership designations to disguise their movements through Iran's tolling system and ensure their own safety.

The upshot, according to Citrini's findings, is that the market had missed a large swath of Iranian-directed shipping traffic through the strait.

Read more: What an extended war with Iran could mean for gas prices

In going to the strait, "we figured we'd leave with an impression that was basically 'The strait was closed or open,'" Citrini wrote in the public section of its client report. "We also were quite aware that the trip might be a flop and we would learn nothing at all."

The report goes on to say, "There was no shortage of alpha on the Strait, including concrete information on the new rules, being written as we speak, on how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is deciding who can, and can't, pass."

Citrini Research said its on-the-ground analyst is "now safe and sound back in the free world."

Oil prices popped at the open of futures trading on Sunday before moderating overnight. By 11:15 a.m. ET Monday, international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 0.4% to $109 per barrel, while futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) traded 0.4% higher to hover around $112 per barrel.

The latest data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that over the weekend, 21 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz, marking the highest volume of traffic through the critical waterway since the war began. While most of those ships were Iranian, according to Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee, vessels from China, Japan, and Iraq, among other countries that have agreed to Iran's tolling regime, have also passed through.

"In practical terms, passage through the Strait of Hormuz increasingly depends on Iranian bargaining terms and tolerance," JPMorgan Chase commodities strategists wrote in a client note on Monday.

"If nation-states make side arrangements to secure safe transit, this amounts to an acknowledgment that Iran retains meaningful control over one of the world's central energy arteries," they added. "If more countries cut their own safe passage deals with Iran for their tankers, Iran's leverage is strengthened."

While Citrini's detailed findings have not been shared with the public, several excerpts of the analyst report have been widely circulated. In one, the analyst recounts swimming in the strait and interacting with smuggling ships, as drones "did not appear to be making fine distinctions between a noncompliant tanker and a forty-year-old dinghy."

"So I figured, if I was out here, I might as well go for it," the analyst reportedly wrote. "I hopped in the water and swam. Cigar in my mouth. Shaheds above."

"Then the smuggling boats started running past ... and then one of them turned and pulled directly toward us at high speed from the direction of Iran," an excerpt read. "For five seconds I was certain it was over. The Emirati in the barrel β€” 72 pieces β€” was the only thing in my head.

"Turned out, it wasn't the IRGC. Just another smuggler ... He held out his cigarette and I handed him my cigar, and we looked at each other across the gap between two boats in the middle of the most contested waterway on earth, and we nodded, and we smiled, and neither of us said a word."

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