Americans now believe they need about $1.46 million to retire comfortably, according to a new study. But real estate investor Grant Cardone is pushing back.

“Do you think $1.4 million is enough to retire?” he asked in a recent post on X. “If not, what is the number?” He followed that up with a warning: “I don't think people actually understand what it cost to retire and fund a life as you get older.”

The $1.46 million figure comes from Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress Study. It marks a $200,000 jump from the previous year and reflects growing concern about inflation, longer life spans and uncertainty around Social Security.

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At the same time, confidence is shaky. The study found that 46% of Americans don't expect to be financially prepared for retirement, while 48% believe it's at least somewhat likely they will outlive their savings.

There's also a major gap between targets and reality. Nearly a quarter of those with retirement savings say they have one year or less of their current income set aside. Many haven't reached even basic benchmarks like saving multiple times their annual income.

Cardone's criticism lines up with those concerns. He says that people are underestimating what retirement actually costs, especially later in life. “Yes you will spend less money but in the later years of your life, there's a potential debt with assisted care cost,” he wrote. “You will spend a great deal more money than you ever imagined.”

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Even the study acknowledges that there's no one-size-fits-all number. Northwestern Mutual recommends aiming to replace about 80% of pre-retirement income, but that depends heavily on lifestyle, location and health.

Common rules of thumb, like saving 25 times your annual spending or withdrawing 4% per year, can help estimate income. For example, $1.46 million could generate roughly $58,000 annually. Another rule suggests every $1,000 in monthly retirement income requires about $300,000 in savings.

But these rules aren't perfect. They don't really factor in big costs like healthcare or long-term care, which can get very expensive as you get older.

That's where Cardone's warning hits hardest. While many Americans expect to spend less in retirement, those assumptions may not hold up over decades, especially as medical needs increase.

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Another key shift is how long retirement might last. Americans say they plan to retire around age 65, but many also expect to live much longer. More than a quarter believe they could reach 100.

That extended timeline is changing behavior. About 41% of Americans say they plan to work during retirement, either for extra income or to stay active.

There are also big differences between age groups. Gen Z feels the most confident about retirement, while Gen X, who are closer to retiring, feel the least prepared and are more likely to put it off.

At the end of the day, retirement is getting harder to predict. The higher “magic number” isn't just about rising costs, but also about not knowing how long your money needs to last or what you'll actually spend over time.

As retirement costs and longevity uncertainty grow, individuals are exploring ways to make their savings work harder. Platforms like Public provide access to stocks, ETFs, and diversified investment tools, helping people build long-term portfolios designed to support retirement goals.

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This article The New 'Magic Number' For Retirement Is $1.46M. Grant Cardone Says That Won't Even Come Close. 'You Will Spend A Great Deal More Money' originally appeared on Benzinga.com

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