One major analyst no longer classifies North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race as a toss-up. The Cook Political Report announced Monday that it has shifted its rating of the race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat” — increasing Democratic odds of taking back the Senate in November.

It’s a big statement in a battleground state like North Carolina, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and a signal that a race that was expected to be the most expensive in the country and crucial to securing the Senate majority may not be as competitive as previously thought.

It might sound like a familiar story. After all, North Carolina has become national Democrats’ white whale. Every election cycle, they get their hopes up, only to lose by slim margins every time. But there is real reason to believe that 2026 is different. This appears to be the first time in at least a decade that the Cook Political Report has rated a North Carolina Senate race in Democrats’ favor. In 2022, 2020 and 2016, the ratings fluctuated between “Lean Republican” and “Toss Up.” But with former Gov. Roy Cooper leading in every poll so far, sometimes by a significant margin, Democrats can probably afford to be cautiously optimistic, especially if things don’t change in the next few months.

North Carolina wasn’t the only race whose rating shifted on Monday, and it may not have even been the most significant. The Cook Political Report also shifted Ohio’s contest from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” Ohio, which is considered more of a red state than a swing state these days, is holding a special election for the seat vacated by Vice President J.D. Vance. If that race becomes even more competitive than expected, Republicans could be forced to spend more to defend it, potentially siphoning resources away from places like North Carolina. The leading super PAC for Senate Republicans has already announced plans to spend the most money in the Ohio Senate race, with North Carolina coming in second.

So far, the Cook Political Report appears to be the only major outlet to shift its outlook on North Carolina’s Senate race. Other outlets, like Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, still classify the race as a toss-up. But if things keep trending in Democrats’ favor, perhaps those projections will start to shift, too.

Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.